It is my pleasure to invite you to our first LSS Presentation of 2021, to take place on March 4, from 8pm – 9pm via Microsoft Teams . The talk will be given by Françoise Kemp from the University of Luxembourg. She got a Master in Applied Mathematics from the University of Trier in 2018, and is now doing a PhD in Systems Biomedicine at the Luxembourg Center for Systems Biomedicine, and is Member of the COVID-19 Taskforce Research Luxembourg

Abstract

Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied; vaccines are also becoming available. Now, an urgent question is how the interplay between vaccination strategies and social measures will shape infections, hospital demand and casualties. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to include vaccination, ICU, hospital and death. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden. The model quantifies the vaccination rate needed for herd immunity by desired times. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at a constant rate could lead to herd immunity only by mid-summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines roll-out speeds, which we quantify, are employed. Vaccination will help considerably, but not immediately, thus social measures still remain crucial for months.

Practical information

Date: 4 March 2021
Time: 20:00-21:00
Place: Microsoft Teams
Fee: Free
Registration: please register by sending an email to Michela Bia (michela.bia@liser.lu)

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